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The protein transition reshapes diets and industries 

Diets, like food systems, will evolve in a world shaped by climate constraints, shifting consumer preferences and technological change.

Consumption and production may move further away from large-mammal livestock—particularly beef and lamb—towards a more diverse mix of protein sources, including plant-based alternatives, cultured meat, insect-derived ingredients and precision-fermented products. 

The protein transition is already underway.

Consumer preferences are evolving, particularly among younger cohorts, with greater attention paid to health, sustainability and animal welfare.

Researchers such as Marco Springmann17 at the University of Oxford have highlighted the environmental benefits of reducing red meat consumption, while investors have increasingly focused on the resource intensity of traditional livestock production, particularly in land and water use. 

In the UK, this shift carries both opportunities and sensitivities.

Livestock farming remains central to rural economies and cultural identity. Upland farming communities play a role not just in food production, but in landscape management and biodiversity. Any transition will need to be managed carefully, taking the livelihood of farmers into account, not least due to greater pressure relatively emissions-intensive farming will receive as climate policy tightens, but also as dietary preferences shift.   

Recent consumption trends underline the point. In the UK, consumption of beef and lamb has declined, while chicken has risen steadily to become the dominant meat, reflecting its lower cost and perceived health advantages. Plant-based protein consumption, though still small, has grown rapidly from a low base.

A key – and open – question is whether this substitution continues.

Chicken has so far benefited from being seen as a “middle ground” protein.  At any given time, there are close to 200 million chickens in the country, compared to 10 million cattle and 30 million sheep.  Yet rising attention to animal welfare and environmental impacts could make it likely that the UK will hit a “peak chicken” moment, after which volumes decline.  

“Yet rising attention to animal welfare and environmental impacts could make it likely that the UK will hit a “peak chicken” moment, after which volumes decline…”

Health considerations add complexity. High consumption of processed and red meat is associated with certain risks. But red meat is also an important source of nutrients, including iron and vitamin B12. This creates space for innovation: fortified plant-based products, precision-fermented ingredients and hybrid foods designed to replicate both taste and nutritional value. 

Technology will inform how this transition unfolds. Advances in precision fermentation allow proteins to be produced using microorganisms rather than animals, potentially at scale and with lower resource inputs.

Cultured meat remains at an early stage but continues to attract investment. Insect protein, already widely consumed globally, offers a highly efficient source of nutrition, largely as an ingredient in processed foods and animal feed but also for human consumption. 

For Britons currently in their 20s, the transition is likely to be gradual. Diets may become more varied in terms of protein sources. Traditional meat products may remain available but become relatively more expensive and consumed less frequently. Alternative proteins—initially niche—may become increasingly mainstream, particularly in urban settings.  Burgers and pizzas are already giving way to fried chicken.  Plant-burgers and locusts could eventually follow.  

For investors, there will be opportunities in companies developing alternative protein technologies, from plant-based producers to firms specialising in fermentation and cellular agriculture.

Supply chains may evolve, with new inputs, processing technologies and distribution models emerging. Traditional agricultural sectors may face a period of adjustment, creating both risks and opportunities. 

Institutional investors are already treating this as a structural theme. Initiatives such as FAIRR18, founded by Jeremy Coller, have highlighted the downsides of traditional livestock production, while investors including UBS and Temasek have identified alternative proteins as a potential area of long-term growth and capital allocation. 

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